Week 12: Fantasy Studs and Duds

Studs

Jay Ajayi- This one seems obvious, but Ajayi has one of the best matchups of the week. Whilst Ajayi hasn’t had a huge amount of success in the past few weeks, due to teams focusing their efforts upon him. Look for a bounce back game this week, the Dolphins are trying to make a conceded effort to get Ajayi involved, and it is obvious that they do not trust Ryan Tannehill to lead them up and down the field. The Dolphins take on a 49ers defence that is currently the worst in the entire NFL at stopping opposing running backs, look for Ajayi to have a monster day, pushing 150 yards and maybe a touchdown or two.

Melvin Gordon- One of the best fantasy draft picks, Gordon has rewarded fantasy enthusiasts’ week in and week out. Gordon has posted double digit fantasy points in every single game bar one, that that was a 9.7 game against the Broncos. Look for Melvin and the Chargers to have a productive day against a Texans defence that whilst being solid is far from elite. The Texans currently give up the 7th most points to running backs, so start Gordon this week with confidence.

Rishard Matthews- Matthews has emerged as the number one receiver in Tennessee. Whilst the knock on him was that he was touchdown dependant, last week he bucked that trend and posted 122 receiving yards. The chemistry between Matthews and Marcus Mariota is evident when watching the film, Mariota constantly looks his way in the passing game. This week Matthews has a great opportunity to have a productive day for fantasy owners. Taking on a banged up Bears secondary, Matthews could be in for a big stat line.

Rashard Jennings- Well it looks like the Giants may have found a running game, after so many weeks of floundering about, Jennings has posted back to back productive fantasy weeks. It seems that the Giants have finally settled on Jennings to be their primary running back, and this bodes well for fantasy owners. The Giants are taking on the Browns this week, and as we all know the Browns are historically bad at this present time. Look for the Giants to get out to an early lead and then feed Jennings carries, very similar to how the Steelers played last week. Start Jennings simply for the workload that he is going to get in this game.

Russell Wilson- A healthy Wilson at this point in the season is lethal, evident of the last three weeks in which he has put up 20+ fantasy points. The Seahawks are blowing teams away at the moment and Wilson is right at the helm, steering this offensive juggernaut forward. Start Wilson this week with confidence, he is taking on a Tampa bay defence that ranks the 6th worst against opposing quarterbacks, and is also playing at home, Wilson is a must start.

Lamar Miller- Well it looks like the Texans finally understand the blunder that they made in giving Brock Osweiler a 72million dollar contract, and playing terribly. The last few weeks the Texans have made an concerted effort to move away from the erratic throwing of Osweiler and feed Miller the rock. After last week’s effort of 104 rushing yards and a touchdown, Miller looks to be finding form at the right time. This week he has a great matchup against a Chargers defence that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run game. I would start Miller in a heartbeat this week, as he will see a lot of volume and has the power and speed to break a few big runs.

Duds

Mike Evans- This may seem like a big call, but Evans is taking on a Seahawks defence at home that has one of the best, if not the best secondary in the NFL. Evans will be seeing a lot of Richard Sherman on Sunday, and this will put a dent in his fantasy day. The Seahawks are an elite defence, then add into the mix a healthy Kam Chancellor, and you have a top 2 defence period. Whilst Evans has been seeing a lot of work this season, I do not foresee him having an easy day at all in Seattle. Whilst it is hard to bench him, temper expectations as the only fantasy points that may come from him will be in garbage time.

Rob Kelley- What a game Kelley had last week, blowing the Packers out of the contest and scoring three touchdowns. Fat Rob as his team mates call him, is a viable fantasy option going forward, just not this week. I say this because of what the Dallas Cowboys do to opposing teams, do to the way in which their offence operates, they starve the opposing offence of the ball. Therefore, when the Redskins do get on the field to mount an offensive drive, they may be down, or there may not be much time left on the clock. All of these things do not point towards a game script that favours a running back heavy approach, whilst Kelley is talented, the carries may not be there for him in this game to post in viable fantasy totals.

Jeremy Hill- Without Giovani Bernard out for the season, the Bengals backfield is all Hill’s. Add into this, the fact that AJ Green may miss an extended period of time due to a hamstring injury, and you would think that all signs look good for Hill. This week though, despite the volume that he may see, I would advise caution against starting him. The Ravens are the best defence in the NFL right now against the run, and I foresee them game planning to stop Hill, therefore forcing Dalton into precarious passing situations without his number one option.

Latavius Murray- Whilst Murray went off a few weeks ago against the Broncos, he was a bit of a disappointment last week against a vulnerable Texans run defence. Don’t expect this to change this week, as Murray takes on one of the best run defences in the NFL. The Panthers whilst bleeding points in the secondary, are very capable at the line backing position. Whilst it looks like Luke Kuechly will miss this game due to a serious concussion, the Panthers still have Thomas Davis and a numerous other big bodies up front, that will make Murray's day difficult. I also think that the Raiders will seek to rely upon the arm of Carr and exploit a favourable matchup through the passing attack, furthermore reducing the workload that Murray may see.

Antonio Gates- What a revelation the future hall of famer Antonio Gates is. In the last three weeks before his bye, Gates has caught a touchdown and recorded over 30 receiving yards. Expect a tougher matchup for him this week though, taking on a Texans defence that currently ranks as 5th best against opposing tight ends, Gates could disappoint fantasy owners. Add into the equation the solid play from rookie Hunter Henry, and the reliance on Melvin Gordon, and the upside for Gates in this game is slim. Start him if your desperate, but this matchup does not look favourable for the veteran pass catcher.

Caution- Julio Jones- Whilst you would be crazy to bench Julio Jones, he has an incredibly tough matchup this week. He is going to be covered by one of the best corner backs in the NFL right now, in Patrick Peterson, and will not have many opportunities for open catches. One of the redeeming qualities for Julio in this matchup is the fact that he is playing at home. Don’t expect Julio to blow up, as Matt Ryan will look to a number of his other offensive weapons if Peterson is draped all over Jones for the day.