Week 15: Fantasy Studs and Duds

Studs

Devonta Freeman- Again the easiest pick of the week, taking on a 49ers defence that is historically bad against the run right now (allowing around 170 rushing yards per game). This has been a reoccurring theme since Bowman was lost for the season, any running back playing the 49ers is a must start. We only need to look at Bilal Powell, Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi, to see that every running back who plays the Niners, will score double digit fantasy points, and may even finish as a top 5 running back for the week. The matchup for Freeman is just too good, whilst he didn’t get a lot of work last week in the demolition of the Rams, look for the Falcons to use him more this week. This game will be over by the second quarter, as Matt Ryan will have his way with this Niners secondary, therefore Freeman could see upwards of 20+ carries as the Falcons look to bleed away the clock. Freeman is a top 5 running back this week, and a must start in all formats.

Rishard Matthews- Whilst Matthews was virtually invisible from a fantasy perspective last week, we need to remember that he was taking on the best secondary in the NFL, the Broncos defence is no joke. This week Matthews has an easier matchup, taking on the Chiefs, many of you may think that the Chiefs defence has been locking down opposing wide receivers, yet the opposite has been occurring. Whilst Marcus Peters has been playing at an elite level, the other corner backs have not, surrendering 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This Chiefs defence is opportunistic and employs a bend and not break defence, therefore look to see Matthews being moved around the field in order to exploit favourable matchups.

Ladirus Green- What a disappointing week it was for all the Steelers pass catchers last week. All of this had to do with Big Ben throwing three intercepts and Le’Veon Bell having a franchise day rushing (seriously Bell was a monster). Don’t expect such a heavy emphasis on the run this week, as the Steelers take on their divisional rival in the Bengals. Big Ben will have a few more opportunities to spread the ball around this week, and this bodes well for Green, who is taking on a Cincinnati team that is the third worst in the NFL against opposing tight ends. Whilst Bell will see a heavy workload, Green should still be used in multiple offensive packages.

Carlos Hyde- What a game Hyde had last week, if it wasn’t for Le’Veon Bell and Bilal Powell having monster days, more would be said about the day that Hyde had. In a lost season for the 49ers, Carlos Hyde is the only bright spot and is providing some watchable football. This week’s matchup against the Falcons places Hyde in a position to have another productive day. The Falcons currently give up the third highest amount of rushing yards in the league to opposing running backs. This sets the stage for Hyde to have a productive day, even if the Falcons get out to an early lead, the Niners coaching staff have used Hyde even when down by multiple scores.

LeSean McCoy- This is an easy pick, but one that I cannot emphasis more. Shady looks to be back to his normal elusive self this season, making effortless cuts and getting more involved in the passing game. This week’s matchup against the Browns is tantalising for any McCoy owner. The Bills are taking on the Browns who currently rank as the second worst defence against the run this season, giving up around 150 yards on the ground per game (yikes). Look for McCoy to have a huge game here, as the Bills will probably be up early in the game. McCoy should finish in the top 3 for running backs this week, and could push 150 yards from scrimmage.

Sleeper- Tyreek Hill- What a development we have seen from Hill, the speedster from the Chiefs has been a game changer for this offence. He was the reason as to why the Chiefs beat the Raiders last week, with a touchdown on special team and a receiving touchdown, in which he displayed his ability to get deep. It also looks like Alex Smith is starting to throw a bit deeper, with both Hill and Kelce being the top beneficiaries of this style of play. Look for Hill to have another productive day as the Titians currently give up the second most number of yards to opposing wide receivers. This game could be a bit of a shootout and with Hill’s speed, he can take any reception to the house.

Duds

Andrew Luck- I am baffled by the lack of foresight that the Colts have, constantly not drafting offensive linemen, has placed them in a positon in which they cannot emerge from. The Colts currently lead the NFL in quarterback hits, and this is starting to show as Luck is nursing multiple injuries from the season. A change must occur this offseason, otherwise Luck’s career may be cut short due to the amount of punishment he has taken over the past few seasons. Unfortunately for Luck and the Colts, this week they travel to Minnesota to take on a defensive front that loves to pressure and sack the quarterback. With the way in which the Colts offensive line is playing, I wouldn’t be surprised if Luck is sacked close to 7 times. Luck is also coming into this game carrying a shoulder injury and has missed large portions of practise this week. All in all, this does not look to be a good week in which to rely on Luck.

Delaine Walker- Walker has been a relatively consistent for fantasy owners this season, last week’s abysmal fantasy output was mainly due to the Broncos defence. Yet he has another tough matchup this week against a Chiefs defence that is the 4th best in the NFL against opposing tight ends, a lot of this has to do with the play of Eric Berry and his ability to cover athletic tight ends. Whilst this game may be a bit of a shootout, I would caution starting Walker as he will have a tough time getting open.

Tom Brady- What more can be said of Brady, he single handily dissected one of the best defences in the game last week, throwing for over 400 yards against a good Ravens defence. Don’t expect those numbers this week, as the Pats travel to Denver to take on the no fly zone. Whilst Brady is a must start each week, temper expectations this coming week, as the Patriots will look to run the ball and not force Brady into difficult throws.

Todd Gurley- What an absolute disaster Gurley has been for fantasy owners this season, a top 10 pick who hasn’t had a single 100 rushing game. Even though the Rams fired Fisher during the week, don’t expect Gurley to carry you to fantasy glory. His breakout season will be in 2017 and it looks to be all over for the talented young rusher in 2016. This week he is taking on a Seahawks defence at home, on a short week. Everything just seems to be going against Gurley this season, and with Geoff showing that he is not ready for the NFL, look for the Seahawks to stack the box and make Gurley’s life miserable. I would not start Gurley if you can help it this coming week. (Hang onto him though, next week he takes on the Niners so he may finish the season on a high).

Saints running backs- Ingram and Hightower have been very inconsistent this season, and have given many fantasy managers headaches with their patchy play. I wouldn’t start either of them this week, the Saints offence has looked anaemic over the last few weeks and the run game has been virtually non-existent in that time. This week’s matchup against the Cardinals in Arizona sends alarm bells ringing if you’re a Saints running back owner. The Cardinals currently rank as the second best in the NFL against opposing running backs, and play better at home. I would recommend sitting both of these players.

Caution- Rob Kelley- Ever since that big blow-up game that Kelley had against the Packers, fantasy owners have been starting Kelley with the hope of another big game. Unfortunately, this hasn’t eventuated, whilst he did score a touchdown last week, his overall yardage wasn’t great. This week he has a very tough matchup against a Panthers defence that is ranked as the 6th best in the NFL, they also may be expecting their pro bowl line-backer back this week in Luke Kuechly, adding another hurdle for Kelley to overcome. The redskins will win this game through the air, further limiting Kelley’s role in the offence. Start Kelley will extreme caution this week, as he may disappoint many.