The Case Files: Best in the West

The Case Files: Best in West

This debut edition of the case files looks at arguably the most intriguing divisions in all of football being the AFC West. With rising young stars and potential torches exchanged, this division promises to be one that comes down to the divisional showdowns towards the end of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case: 11-5 (Division Winners)

Justin Houston’s injury (knee) is four months into his 6-12 month timetable and will potentially open the season on reserve/PUP, costing him the first six games. From an optimistic standpoint, this leaves Dee Ford with a chance to make plays alongside a strong overall defence. The Chiefs defensive line will be hosting a healthy Dontari Poe, Allen Bailey, and Jaye Howard which comprise a very young and disruptive front 3. The running game poses a 3 headed monster with Charles back healthy alongside a dangerous Travis Kelce, the Chiefs will be looking to make number 87 an elite tightend.

The Chiefs started out of the gate 1-5 last season, so logic would suggest a well coached Andy Reid side will not duplicate such an unlikely feat again. The Chiefs carried such momentum towards the end of the season by running the table that they have a great chance to carry that momentum to the next season without the beginning hiccup.

Worst case:8-8

As mentioned previously, the Chiefs are a very well balanced offense and possess a playmaking defence that is hard to fault. However, losing a top flight corner back in Smith, a top 5 league talent in Houston and Charles being unreliable year after year, it’s feasible to see them get unlucky and lose some close games. Alex Smith’s conservative nature may be the final straw of this team’s chance at making noise in an ever improving division.

Bottom Line: 11-5 (out first round of playoffs)

The ceiling for the Chiefs is lower than Oakland’s, that being said their floor is also higher due to their established running game, defence and reliable quarterback situation. This is a well balanced team ready to win close games that will be thrown their way. Much like last season Smith’s conservative nature will not lose games, however it will prevent a deep playoff run, unless Smith can open up the field and Houston’s loss isn’t overly significant, this team is stuck in good-but not great state of limbo.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case: 12-4

The Raiders are an offensive juggernaut with 3rd year rising star Derek Carr taking the next step to elite play with more consistent pocket presence and decision making, beginning a run at Aaron Rodgers like heights. Ending a 14 year playoff drought, Carr and Cooper become the new age Big Ben and Brown duo. Early critics of Bill Musgrave are silenced as his 2nd season united with Del Rio pays dividends with a creative mix of plays that provide a more consistent running game. The Biggest weakness of the team last year was their secondary, which is vastly improved with Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson and rookie Karl Joseph, who will create more time for Khalil Mack to strive for strong consideration of Defensive MVP with more chances to attack opposing quarterbacks. Bruce Irvin was used as a utility in Seattle and with his hand in the ground more often now the league may see the next best pass rushing duo in the entire league.

Worst Case: 6-10

Bill Musgrave’s knack for being vanilla at the possible worst time while not making key adjustments stunts Carr to the similar regression we saw at the end of last year. Latavius Murray’s ability to break tackles isn’t better and the young rookie compliment back Washington cannot provide a solid alternative. Oakland’s new blend in the secondary doesn’t gel well enough and continues to struggle and the DJ Hayden experiment finally comes to an underwhelming end. With a plethora of new starters, the Raiders struggle (especially defensively) with Ben Heeney, Karl Jospeh, Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson, Bruce Irvin who are all presumptive new starters may handicap facilitate Oakland with growing pains.

Bottom Line: 9-7 (Wild card berth)

The Raiders have a healthy blend of young rising stars and consummate veterans, with elite talent in Amari Cooper, Khalil Mack and potentially Derek Carr. The addition of Kelechi Osemele is a blue chip talent on Oakland’s already talented line that will bolster an inconsistent run offense. On paper, Oakland looks like the most talented team in the division. Yet, after 1-7 against playoff team’s last season and lack big game experience, its cause for concern heading into 2017. However, with a little more continuity that hasn’t been seen in Oakland, they finally are playoff bound. This is the most unpredictable franchise in the NFL so the ability of Carr and that new defense in how they close out games will determine their fate.

Denver Broncos

Best Case: 9-7

Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, and it’s ironic that this team won the Superbowl last year with the worst quarterback last season...I.e. Peyton Manning. This is in part to one of the best defences in the last decade. Mark Sanchez as humorous as this sounds will be a perfect fit in Gary Kubiak’s system, the defence albeit missing some key pieces will still be firing with Wade Phillips calling the shots. Sanchez (or Lynch) will have playmakers at the WR position along with a top flight run game. This could be a really balanced team if Sanchez protects the ball.

Worst Case: 4-12

Mark Sanchez has played in similar circumstances before with the Jets that coasted on a solid run game and dominant defense. However, the body of work shows that turnovers in clutch situations have been somewhat of a problem for the USC product. Paxton Lynch comes in as physically talented as any quarterback in the last few seasons but struggles to grasp the speed and nature of NFL coverage’s. The defense still finds success but can’t maintain its moxy from the constant offensive letdowns. Turnovers kill in the NFL and Sanchez and a rookie Lynch will ultimately be the achilles heel of this team.

Bottom line 7-9

Call it a post Superbowl let off, I think a lot of this off-season rides on how Demaryius Thomas can go above and beyond to help subpar quarterback play. Additions of Russell Okung and Donald Stevenson on the line will aid a struggling unit a year prior and the defense will still be fringing on top 5 consideration. Denver scored some wins against some solid opponents but also a fair share of mediocre to below-average teams. Can they do it throughout an entire season especially with a less talented team? Denver averaged just 22.2 points per game, ranking them No. 19 in the NFL during the regular season, and with question marks in the running game and uncertainty at quarterback, this does not bode well for them.

San Diego Chargers:

Best Case: 10-6

Call me crazy but I don’t believe the Bolts are as far off as everyone thinks, the return of Ken Whisenhunt to the staff is huge for the teams toughness and execution. If you think Rivers will need to throw as many times as he did last time? your absolutely right. However, Keenan Allen is back with pro bowl potential this season as he was on pace to break NFL records through week 8 for receptions and still came second on the team for the end of the season with 67. Despite only playing half a season

Trenches on both sides were a huge weaknesses for San Diego last season but a case could be made for an improving young unit with pieces such as Joey Bosa along with Brandon Mebane who has had a solid career at nose tackle along with potential players in Melvin Ingram and Denzel Perryman aiming to make statements for pro bowl years.

Worst Case 3-13

The Chargers added key pieces but they also lost some players such as Eric Weddle and Malcom Flloyd. The Linebacking core is slower then warranted along with a struggling offensive line blocking for a Melvin Gordon who had minor Microfracture surgery in January following a bust riddled season is cause for concern. The Chargers dead last pass rush from a year ago could continue to struggle as adding Bosa may not be enough.

Bottom line: 7-9

Eight of the team’s twelve losses last season were decided by 8 points or less, so with a little luck on their side along with a bounce back sophomore year from Melvin Gordon this team could surprise some people. However with the lack at depth and concern in the secondary minus Jason Verrett I see this team being a year off.