The Regression of Superman and the Panthers

Whilst in this realtivtly quiet period before the season truly starts, I started to think about the exploits of Cam Newton last season. Newton single handily guided a team who was previously finished 7-8, to a winning record of 15-1 last season. Not to mention taking a team without a true number one receiver all the way to the Super Bowl (Kelvin Benjamin tore his ACL in the pre season and was forced to miss the entire season).

The tenacity and growth that Newton showed last year was spectacular, and was simply a pleasure to watch a quarterback take command of the field in such a way. The numbers that he posted whilst perplexing every defence baring the Broncos was astounding. Tallying 3,837 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns coupled with 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in the regular season is a feat that many couldn’t even dream to achieve, earning him his first ever MVP award.

To put this into perspective, Michael Vick one of the best hybrid quarterbacks to play the game in the past decade had a season in 2010 in which he posted numerous rushing yards and passing touchdowns, yet his passing touchdowns and overall yards palled in comparison to Newton. (Vicks 2010 stats, 3,018 passing yards, 21 passing TD’s, 676 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns).

Yet whilst Newton’s ability and drive cannot be questioned, I do not see him reaching such lofty heights next year. In fact, I do not see him finishing as a top four quarterback, which would effectively force him out of the MVP debate. Whilst this is not a knock on Newton as I personally love watching him play and love what he brings to the game, I do not think he can repeat what was achieved last season. There are three reasons for this;

1. Why he will not be the MVP again

Whilst Newton may post some adequate numbers, his counterparts have the potential to set records (see separate top quarterbacks article). I have Newton as my fifth highest quarterback entering the season, whilst he will undoubtedly put up good numbers again, I do not foresee him ambushing the league like he did last season. Defences will have a full offseason to study him, and also understand how the Broncos effectively took Newton out of the game in Super Bowl L (50).

But more than that, other offences going into this season are primed for colossal campaigns. We need only look at such players like Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson, to name a few that are coming for Newtons MVP award. Again whilst Newton won’t fall out of the top ten in quarterback rankings, he is going to be overtaken by his peers. For if the Packers, Cardinals and Seahawks can stay healthy and their offences take another step forward, then they may threaten some of the records that we have seen stand previously. This season we are primed to see some explosive offences, and as a result whoever is leading the most potent in the league will invariably place themselves into the MVP debate. Unfortunately, I do not see the Panthers being able to keep pace with some of the more formidable offences in the league, therefore eroding Newtons chances at going back to back for the MVP award.

2. Panthers struggle moving the rock

Whilst the Panthers were very effective running the ball last year, a lot of this had to do with defences worrying about Newton throwing the ball deep or rushing from the pocket. I think this year we see a regression in the play by Johnathan Stewart. Last year he was effective, yet not a game breaker, and his durability is a big issue for a team that wishes to lean on the running game. Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Wittaker are not the answer for this team, whilst this backfield did create problems for defences last year, their inability to add a dynamic back may prove to be their downfall. For in order to give Newton a clean pocket and take the pressure of him from tenacious pass rushers, you must be able to run the ball. As seen in the Super Bowl, once you restrict the running game, then pressure can be applied to Newton in the pocket. Which in turn limits what Newton can do running the ball, as well as setting his feet to throw accurate deep balls.

3. Panthers Defence

Carolina finished 6th overall defensively last season. Whilst so much praise was given to this defence going into the Super Bowl, a lot of their success came from the ability of the offence to score points at will, therefore allowing the defence to play under less pressure. Whilst nothing can be taken away from the amazing play of Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, Kawann Short and Shaq Thompson. This team benefited from such a potent offence, and as previously discussed I foresee this offence taking a step back this year. As seen in 2014 the Panthers defence ranked 14th overall (per football outsiders), whilst I do not think they are going to fall so low, they will not be able to repeat the same consistency they did last season. This again will have an impact on Newton and the offence, by not restricting teams to short fields and low scores, the offence will have to throw more and in some cases may have to come from behind. A feat that Newton can achieve, yet one that you do not want to have to rely upon over a season.

It cannot be argued that Newton is one of the best athletes in the NFL at this present time, yet last season was in my opinion one that may not be repeated for a number of years. If any team or player is going to rebuff this assessment though its going to be the Panthers and Cameron Newton. I personally love watching Newton play and enjoyed the run that the Panthers had to the Super Bowl, and it took a once in a generational defence to stop Newton in his tracks. Yet I do not see him having the same success as last year due to the numerous factors that this team will need to repeat their lofty feats.