The Case Files: Young Gunslingers, AFC South

Expectation vs Reality: Young Gunslingers, AFC South

In this article we are looking at what each respective team in the NFL is hoping for from their rosters this coming season. Keep in mind that the expectation portion is a hopeful assessment of a team, baring injuries and the regression of some players. Whilst the reality section is an assessment of what may happen if things go very wrong.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case 10-6

The Jags are towards the top of the league in terms of potential due in part to their young (very young) overhauled roster. The free-agency additions of Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson and Prince Amukamara added stout veterans to an emerging roster. The draft produced splashes with Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack who provide blue chip talent to a struggling defence. Sprinkle in by all accounts an “un-blockable” Dante Folwer and the Jags basically added another extra first round selection (Folwer missed all last season with an ACL tear, former first round pick in 2015 draft).

With all these new pieces the Jags find a way to find cohesion, Myles Jack proves Jacksonville’s team doctor right and dominates as expected (before injury) in a multitude of positions reeking havoc much like his pro comparison Patrick Willis did in San Francisco. Ramsey and Amukamara provide a lock down secondary due to their pure raw talent and boost the defence towards the top half of the NFL. The team’s biggest secret in Fowler explodes on the scene and partners with Jack and Jackson tormenting opposing passers. Considering the offense was coming on strong last season it leads to major question marks on the defensive side of the ball and if it clicks...look out AFC south.

Worst Case: 6-10

Although the offense packed a genuine aerial assault last season there were areas that needed improvement in order for a real play-off push in 2017. The offensive line play or lack thereof has contributed to 122 sacks in the last 2 seasons and plummeting to the bottom third for rushing yards in the last 5. Luckily for Jacksonville fans, the offensive line was viewed as a priority with additions to the likes of Beachum, Mackenzy and Bearnadeau. However, other than Beachum, the others aren’t viewed as potential starters as of this moment. Chemistry and experience will be either Jacksonville’s success or downfall, with so many talented new pieces on both sides of the ball logic would suggest that it will take time for this talented team to gel (especially defensively). If the offensive line is still unable to open holes for Ivory and Yeldon and the defence gives up too many big plays due to inexperience, Bradley may be joining the unemployment line.

What to Expect: 8-8 (no playoffs/2nd in AFC South)

An NFL season can be saved or ruined in the opening month especially with a young team that will need to ride the momentum wave like Jacksonville. Fortunately, they face off with three of the first 4 four teams with losing records a season ago. Allen Robinson is a budding NFL superstar and if Bortles can take the next step in regards to limiting turnovers and improving situational moments then this team can really make some noise. The power element of Chris Ivory fresh off a 1,000 yard season will give the team the much needed balance to control the clock. However, if this young, talented team is going to take the next step to the post-season it comes down to defence putting all the talent together. This team is on the cusp of being a perennial playoff contender but for now they are a year and another solid off-season away from doing that.

Houston Texans

Best Case: 12-4

The defence from the second half of last season was among the best in the league, JJ Watt and company locked down opposing quarterbacks with constant pressure. On the other side of the ball, the offense will finally have a supplanted quarterback that will be given a full season under centre. Continuity on offense has be a rare site for the Texans with head coach Bill O’Brien having to work with 7 different starting quarterbacks in last two seasons. The game of musical chairs at football’s most important position had to stop, now enter Brock Osweiler. With a totally revamped supporting cast, the Texans won’t have to rely on him due to a shut down defence (ranking 3rd last season) and a new star running back in Lamar Miller. The Texans won the division at 9-7 with without these additions and with upgrades at every skill position other then tight end, this Houston team has a chance to be a legitimate Superbowl contender.

Worst Case: 9-7

If JJ Watt’s off-season injury is worse than we feared and comes into the line-up without enough reps it may take longer than expected for him to get back into elite form. Osweiler may only have to play average to get the Texans to the playoffs, however, we haven’t seen a large body of work, but from what I saw it was very inconsistent. If Brock flops, then it will place a strain on the defence who maybe without its star. Nick Martin and Jeff Allen come in as new starters along the offensive line plus two rookies at receiver (Fuller & Miller) as well as Miller at Running back. If the rookies take long to develop along with there being growing pains as a unit then the team may struggle. However, these are all definite upgrades, it’s just whether the team can gel and fit O’Brien’s system.

What To Expect: 11-5 (Division Champs/1st)

The Texans are a team with an elite defence and a new offence that on paper looks like a powerhouse. General manager Rick Smith has had an eye for talent ever since his start with Houston, and with additions to compliment superstar wide out Deandre Hopkins, rookies Fuller and Miller now provide Hopkins with more chances without being double teamed.

Lamar Miller is an elite talent that was simply undervalued in Miami and if Brock plays just average football (much like in Denver), then the defence should carry them to a deep playoff run. Watt’s absence after back surgery is concerning however if someone is to bounce back it’ll be the 3 time NFL defensive MVP.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case 10-6

Despite the services of arguably the best quarterback in the league for the majority of the season, the Colts were a perennial playoff team. In his last start before suffering a multitude of injuries, Luck defeated the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos 27-24. There is potential for a winning season with number 12 behind new centre Ryan Kelly, a first round pick out of Alabama. Fans were screaming for Luck to be protected, and Jim Irsay heard these prayers by making the offensive line a priority in the off-season. This will give Luck arguably the best protection since entering the NFL. Jack Mewhort is finally locked into his natural position of left guard, where he looks poised to break out as one of the top players in the NFL at the position along with Anthony Castonzo, if he rebounds after an average 2015 campaign. The secondary received a boost in Patrick Robinson who was with San Diego last season, posting a career best year. Pairing with Vonte Davis this young duo could really aid new comer TJ Green, a second round rookie who will be seeing playing time. The trio of Dorsett, Hilton and Moncrief provide an electric element to the offense and may boast the most speed out of a receiving core in the NFL. If Donte Moncrief can build off a strong 2015 campaign this will give Luck a larger target that the Colts needed after letting Coby Fleener walk.

Worst Case: 4-12

Per ProFootBallFocus, In the seven games where Luck was in uniform playing healthy he ranked 35 out of 36 in passing grades, throwing the second most interceptions and scoring the lowest for QB rating. With the retirement of Matt Hasselbeck, the Colts have two free agent acquisitions as signal callers in Scott Tolzein and Stephen Morris who do not necessarily strike fear in opposing defences. If Luck is to go down again, then the Colts season will swiftly follow. Although Frank Gore is an ageless wonder in NFL standards, the 33-year-old has to meet mother nature at some point and after a gruelling 707 snaps last year (3rd highest among RBs). One would suggest that the Colts have the oldest backfield in the league without any young additions. This is a major concern for the balance on the offensive side, placing all the pressure (yet again) at in Andrew Luck’s battered body.

What to expect: 7-9 (3rd in Division)

I understand that the Colts went to pioneer through a 500. record without Luck’s services for over half a season. However, this division has gotten much more competitive with the Texans, Jaguars and even Titans getting better on both sides of the ball, all with young talented quarterbacks. The talent for the Colts is there but the depth is not, especially after losing Fleener along with injury prone receivers, an old starter at running back and questions at safety and line backer, I think a shift of power is inevitable.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case: 8-8

Folks in Tennessee may be let down to see a 500. record as the pinnacle of their upcoming season but it’s not as glum as one should think. The Titans are a couple of years off and had arguably the best off-season with new GM John Robinson. They accumulated multiple draft picks and nailed the majority of them in terms of value. Not to mention they have a young star at quarterback in Marcus Mariota. This team is building a young roster through the trenches and running game. Derrick Henry and Demarco Murray aka “Smash and Smash” will strike fear into interior NFL defences. Mariota threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 19 touchdown passes to only just 10 interceptions. These numbers would have even been better if not for missing 4 games due to knee injuries. Although his deep passes need work there is no question he is the answer for the Titans at quarterback. The Titans offensive line gave up 54 sacks last season (worst in the league) so they upgraded with talented rookie tackle Jack Conklin and veteran centre Ben Jones. Add in a ball control power running game and the Titans should really improve this season.

Worst Case: 5-10

Ironically this record would tie Tennessee’s win total the last two years, and this is because the Titans have too many holes and lack of overall depth. Inconsistencies at wide receiver have plagued this team and a lack of a big play guy has yet to step up. The wild card of the group is Dorial Green-Beckham, who has all the tools to be a top receiver (subsequently he has now been traded to the Eagles). However, route running woes and general spotty play has held the offense back and will continue to do so. With holes still lurking in the secondary, Tennessee was one of just three teams last season that had zero cornerbacks rank among the top 50 in terms of yards per cover snap. Youth on both sides of the ball and a leaky unproven defence will be cause for concern.

What to Expect: 6-10 (4th in Division)

This is a young team that is hoping to rumble to relevance in 2016. However, with inexperience across the board as well as a front seven that is still relatively unproven, it will be exposed to the solid offenses in the division. Lack of playmakers will prevent Mariota taking this team to a winning season and prevent Tennessee compensating for a weak defence. However, two more similar off-seasons and this team will be looking down on the AFC South as this Titans team now can start getting excited for football again with such a young talented nucleus.

Conor Davison