AFC EAST: New Beast in the East?

Expectation vs Reality

The Case Files: NFC North

In this article we are looking at what each respective team in the NFL is hoping for from their rosters this coming season. Keep in mind that the expectation portion is a hopeful assessment of a team, baring injuries and the regression of some players. Whilst the reality section is an assessment of what may happen if things go very wrong. So without further ado lets get started.

AFC EAST: New Beast in the East?

New York Jets: 12-4

Best Case

Ryan Fitzpatrick enters the season as the guy in Gailey’s system for another year, further building upon what he did in a solid 2015 campaign. Mat Forte brings a balanced element to the Jets with his pass-catching ability which adds a dimension that Chris Ivory simply didn’t offer. Such balance lifts the playoff drought that has burdened Fitzpatrick in recent memory as he compliments the physicality of Jets defence who boast a top tier front seven led by newly re-signed Jets Muhammad Wilkerson. Proving last year to be an elite and multipurpose defender, providing production from both the edge and the interior of the defence. Wilkerson made over 30 pressures from both defensive tackle and edge alignments, along with his highly productive counterpart Sheldon Richardson. If The secondary holds outside of Revis the number four overall defence of last season shouldn’t miss a beat.

Worst Case: 6-10

This team has some elite pieces in place but with an aging receiving core that is very top heavy, an injury to either Decker or Marshall could send this team into a mini tail spin. D'brickashaw Ferguson’s exile from New York leaves the Left Tackle position a cause for concern. Enter Ryan Clady, who in the last 3 seasons has been out for practically two. If Clady’s durability is proven to be shaky then the Jets should expect more pressure on Fitzpatrick. Darrelle Revis is entering the twilight of his career and we saw an ever so slight decline in the once dominant corner. This is cause for concern as the cornerbacks allowed a completion percentage of 46.5 percent last season. Buster Skrine has looked very capable in training camp, however, the tape last year suggests that New Yorrk may be relying too much on its decorated front seven leaving major holes in the backend.

What to Expect: 11-5 (Playoffs/ 1st Place)

In order to Leapfrog the Patriots. Tom Brady’s four-game suspension could open the door in the AFC East and the most likely team to benefit has to be the New York Jets. Although the schedule out of the gate is somewhat brutal with the first four contests being the Bengals, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals the Jets face a better stretch afterwards. After just missing the playoffs a year ago to Buffalo the Jets on paper seem to be better than last season.

New England Patriots

Best Case 14-2

The Elephant in the room will be addressed right at the start of this segment and that elephant is Jimmy Garoppolo. Looking at the situation half full one would suggest that Bill Belichick has a chance to audition Garoppollo as trade bait or see if he has promise to be Terrific Tom’s heir. The plus side for the young signal caller is one of the best all round receiving corps in the league. The dynamic duo of Bennet and Gronkowski will provide the best tight end combination in the NFL. We saw what Brady can do with two elite receiving tight ends in years past so a replication of this isn’t out of the question when he is back under centre. Malcom Butler proved to be more than a Superbowl hero along with top 10 safeties in McCourty and Chung. With Brady putting up points opposing offenses will have a tough time throwing against one of the more underrated secondaries in the league.

Worst Case 8-8

Seeing the Patriots miss the playoffs is unheard of for Patriots faithful and others around the NFL community. However, there is a real chance that we finally see the decline of the once great dynasty. Most people will point to Jimmy Garoppollo’s brief debut as the cause, although there are holes in this team minus Brady’s absence. Trading Chandler Jones to Arizona was perhaps the biggest news in the off-season that doesn’t relate to deflated balls. This leaves the Patriots without a dynamic pass rusher to compliment Jamie Collins. The front seven also took another hit with Rob Ninkovich suspended for substance abuse violations. If 2015 fourth round pick Trey Flowers and former St Louis Ram Chris Long in a part time role cannot find pressure then this will put a strain on the secondary. Losing Dion Lewis leaves the backfield without a shifty playmaker on third down and also places the Patriots with the unknown James white and journeyman Donald Brown to fill that void. If Garoppollo struggles, then even a revenge seeking Tom Brady may not be able to get them out of an early season fallout.

What to Expect: 11-5/ 2nd place

The Patriots have only lost Brady for 4 games and in the meantime possess a dynamic receiving core, a healthy offensive line with Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer returning to the line-up as well as a solid overall defence. My guess is that all-time great Head Coach Bill Belichick will have a few tricks hidden up his sleeve too makeshift a Brady-less Patriots side for the time being.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case: 10-6

Ryan Tannehill seems to have struck gold with QB guru Adam Gase after working efficiency into Jay Cutler’s game who many thought that as an impossible task. Handling a more refined signal caller in Tannehill suggests that the offense is in line for better things. The biggest improvement was rebuilding the offensive line through highly controversial draft selection Laremy Tunsil. If other additions in Jermon Bushrod and Kraig Urbik provide even average play that would be deemed an upgrade over what happened in 2015. If the three can boost the lowest graded run blocking line in 2015 then this team can give Foster and Ajayi enough room to balance the attack.

Worst Case 4-12

Once an obvious strength could become a big weakness for Miami as Cameron Wake, coming off an Achilles tear is 34. Not to mention Mario Williams at 31 coming off a season with Rex Ryan that was arguably his worst. Both players have a lot of responsibility to get to the passer which is a huge cause for concern. Against the run it is no better with Nose Tackle being a major hole that wasn’t filled. If Adam Gase can’t retool this offensive line, Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi will have a tough time to boost a running game that was nearing the bottom in the league last season. If both runners follow current career trends of injury plagued seasons, then this offense will rely too much on Tannehill leading to turnovers and sacks.

What to Expect: (8-8/ 3rd)

Sorry Miami fans, it’s going to be a frustrating season due to the defence letting go of close games that will ultimately hinder your playoff chances. Tannehill will be a big time quarterback under Gase however with questions marks along the trenches, backfield and receiver it’s hard to put total confidence in this team to make the playoffs in a tough division.

Buffalo Bills

Best Case: 9-7

Tyrod Taylor was a top 10 fantasy quarterback when healthy last season and considering Sammy Watkins and Shady McCoy are back in the line-up healthy (for now) we could see another explosive offense take flight in Buffalo. Rex Ryan is a firm believer in running the football and a ground attack with a left side of the offensive line ranking 10th overall according to Pro Football Focus has potential to be an elite combination. Although the defence took a step back last season one would think that another year of learning the nuances of Rex Ryan scheme will allow players to finally gel. This will thrust the strongest position on the Bills roster to the limelight being the secondary who may contain the best young cornerback duo in football in former defensive rookie of the year Ronald Darby along with Stephen Gilmore. This represents one of the most underrated tandems regardless of position and if Rex’s exotic blitzes find traction then the Bills defence will be due for a 180 turnaround.

Worst Case: 5-11

The run defence of the Bills last season was stout, however there are still concerns throughout the front seven. The team attempted to find pass rushing support for Jerry Hughes to alleviate double teams hence the decision in drafting Shaq Lawson. With the first round pick projected to miss over half the season along with college hitman Reggie Ragland gone for the entire season, the Bills will need to rely on similar faces that underwhelmed last season. Receiver seems to still be a top heavy position on the Bills roster. After Sammy Watkins there isn’t much in terms of reliable pass catchers so if Watkins injury past resurfaces then the Bills will struggle.

What to Expect: 7-9/ 4th

For the first time in recent memory, the Bills will enter the season with a franchise quarterback under center. If the offense can stay healthy then a wild card birth isn’t out of the question. However, with question marks due to injuries, pending suspensions including star player Marcell Dareus the 2016 season has too many red flags when it comes to playoff chances in Buffalo. The brother tandem of Rex and Rob Ryan need to find magic this season if they are to elongate their NFL careers so hopefully the team will rally.