Case Files: NFC South

In this article we are looking at what each respective team in the NFL is hoping for from their rosters this coming season. Keep in mind that the expectation portion is a hopeful assessment of a team, baring injuries and the regression of some players. Whilst the reality section is an assessment of what may happen if things go very wrong. So without further ado lets get started.

New Orleans Saints

This Saints team is always competitive, this is in part due to the consistency of Drew Brees and the coaching of Sean Payton. Yet it remains to be seen, wether the Saints defence can improve enough, to allow the offence to not have to carry this franchise.

Best Case 8-8

Drew Brees is a statistical god, with Brees throwing over 4,000 yards in the last nine seasons in a row. Not to mention throwing over 5,000 yards in four seasons during that time. With Brees under centre the Saints will always be competitive, as seen in last season when Brees threw over 500 yards and seven touchdowns to beat the Giants in week eight. If this offence is going to succeed, the receiving core will have to emerge as a threatening weapon. With Bradin Cooks leading this group, and the support play from Willie Snead and the young but ultra talented rookie Mike Thomas, this offence may provide some headaches for opposing defensive coordinators. The acquisition of Coby Fleener at the tight end position, allows Brees another big body in the red zone, in which he will target heavily. As we have seen in previous years, Brees loves to target his tight end, and the coaching staff will seek to move Fleener all around the field to expose favourable matchup’s. Mark Ingram is the final piece to this offence, after acquiring Max Unger the previous season, the Saints added a very accomplished blocker up front. Ingram had a very successful season, until injury forced him to miss four games. Look to see the bruising and powerful running back, if healthy post over 1,000 rushing yards this season and be heavily involved in the passing attack.

The defence has been the Achilles heal of this franchise for the past few years. Whilst not talented, they could not produce any tangible results last year, and subsequently forced Brees and the offence to win the games. Lead by the disruptive pass rusher Cameron Jordan, and now coupled with the veterans from the Rams, James Laurinitis and Nick Fairley, this defensive front should be improved. Yet their secondary is a big weakness for this team, as such this defensive unit will struggle again this season.

Worst Case 5- 11

It could get ugly fast for the Saints this year. Whilst Brees will do his usual thing and throw the ball to a multitude of receivers, the lack of a true number one big bodied wide receiver may prove to be an issue. All reports coming from pre season, is that Mike Thomas may be a younger version of Marques Colston, and we all know how well he played in his prime with the Saints. Yet the fact cannot be disregarded, that Thomas is a rookie adapting to the NFL. Fleener is also a player who will be heavily relied upon, yet has shown in his career to have issues with drops, and doesn’t have the same athletic traits as other tight ends in the league.

This defensive unit as mentioned previously will struggle, whilst Cameron Jordon and Fairley will seek to create some pressure up front, the lack of any true play makers in the secondary will cost this team. The acquisition of Jarius Byrd was a bust and his play in New Orleans has left a lot to be desired. Kenny Vaccaro might be the only bright spot on this thin secondary, and that is saying a lot. Look to see the Saints win on the back of Bree’s arm, as this defence probably wont create many problems for opposing quarter backs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A young team full of talent, the success of this team will be on the back of second year quarter back Jameis Winston, who showed promising signs last year.

Best Case 9-7

Tampa Bay had a very good season considering that Jameis Winston was thrown into the starting role as a rookie early. The reincarnation of Doug Martin as a top running back in the NFL, helped take the pressure off Winston. If Martin can again rush for over 1,400 yards, this offence will be one in which opposing defences will have to take notice of. Not to mention the great support play from the other running back in Charles Sims, this duo constantly creates mismatches across the field, and allows this offence to have a potent running game to match the aerial attack. The passing game last year was admirable, with Winston passing over 4,000 yards, yet in order for this unit to post up large amounts of points, Winston will need to cut down the interceptions (15) and also score a few more touchdowns threw the passing game (22).

Mike Evans, is one of the most talented young receivers in the NFL today, going into his third year, he will look to post similar yards this coming season (1,206) and look to build upon the statistical regression of touchdowns he scored last year compared to his rookie year. There is no denying Evans is a top 10 receiver, based on his athletic ability alone, look to see Winston target him a lot this year, especially in the red zone. Vincent Jackson as the other receiver in Tampa Bay, also warrants attention, whilst he is entering the twilight of his career, he is still a good capable veteran that will take the double teams off Evans.

The defence for the Bucs, is one that is still developing, yet they have a number of good players across all levels. Starting up front, the play of Gerald McCoy constantly creates opportunities for this unit to pressure the quarterback. Add in the stellar play from an underrated line backer in Lavonte David, a player who is constantly working hard to get to the ball and is a workhorse for this defence. Alterraun Verner and Brent Grimes are two veterans at the corner back position, who will look to lock down the outside. Yet they are both getting a bit long in the tooth, look to see the rookie and first round pick Vernon Hargreaves mixed into this secondary. He has already shown us that his is a play maker and the position and has the ability to provide turnovers through his athletic play.

Worst Case 7-9

It remains to be seen whether Doug Martin’s resurgence to relevance was a fluke, or if he is the real deal. Personally I hope he is back and we see another productive season from him, yet he may regress slightly this coming season. Winston will be in line for another good season, yet the success of this team will rest squarely upon his shoulders, hopefully he can progress and learn from some of the mistakes that he made last season. Winston will need both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to have productive years in order for this passing attack to create issues for opposing teams. Jackson as stated before is entering his eleventh year, and last year wasn’t much of a weapon in this Bucs passing attack, hopefully for Bucs he has one more productive season left.

The defence whilst having a number of young talented players, lacks the depth to really create issues for opposing offences. Whilst McCoy and David are two solid players, the lack of a true pass rusher leaves this unit without the ability to create constant pressure on the quarterback. The secondary for this team, is a bit of a weakness, especially if Grimes is starting, as seen in the pre season Grimes may have lost that first step to run with the opposing number one receiver. If this unit is going to have any chance to lock down opposing receivers, they will need to work in Hargreaves and hope that he can display constant production.

Atlanta Flacons

A team that last season finished 8-8, the Falcons will be looking to build upon some of the strong foundations that they put in place last season.

Best Case 11-5 (Wild Card Spot)

Lead by the veteran quarterback Matt Ryan, this offence will again seek to put up a plethora of points. Ryan is consistent, yet lacks the big plays that some of his peers show, yet if he can keep the turn overs down then this offence may be in for a big year. With arguably one of the top receivers in the game, Julio Jones is a nightmare for opposing corner backs. With a whopping 1,871 receiving yards last season, Jones showed the league that he is a beast on the outside and possesses the athletic ability to break of big yards. One of the most surprising aspects of this offence last season was the emergence of Davonta Freeman. During a five game stretch, Freeman scored a whopping nine touchdowns, whilst he may not replicate these numbers this coming season, he showed that he is a very capable threat not only in the running attack but also throw the passing attack. Look to also see Tevin Coleman worked into the run game, before Coleman went down though injury at the start of last season he was the number one running back for this offence. He possesses great break away speed and will also be used in the passing attack.

The big issue for this franchise is the defence. In saying this though, they are coached by the ex defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who showed in Seattle what he can do. This unit is young and still developing, yet they do have some good pieces that will provide big plays. Vic Beasly the young line backer from Clemson, showed last season what a disruptive force he can be from the edge, look to see another big year from Beasly. Look to also see consistent play from their two talented line backers in Sean Witherspoon and Paul Worrilow, both talented players that can shut down the run and are more than capable to cover the middle of the field. Desmond Trufant emerged last season as a true lockdown corner back, his ability to run with the best receivers in the game and also make plays is an exciting prospect for this defence. Look to also see rookie Keanu Neal used a variety of ways, playing at the safety position, he has been likened to Kam Chancellor, obviously Quinn will look to play Neal in a similar role (Neal will miss up to four games, with a knee injury, but look for him in the back end of the season).

Worst Case 8-8

It remains to be seen if Freeman can replicate some of the astounding production that he produced last season, for this offence to be threatening, they will need to running game to flourish. Freeman fell away statically towards the back end of the season last year, hopefully this will not be the case coming into 2016. One of the other main issues for this offence is sometimes worrisome play of veteran Matt Ryan, whilst there is no doubt of his talent, his execution can in some circumstances leave this offence in precarious situations.

The main issue for this team is the defence. As noted previously they are still looking to build upon a number of good talented pieces. Yet last season it was evident that they lacked the depth to really challenge playoff teams, considering they will have to play the high flying Panthers twice in the regular season, hopefully Dan Quinn can use what he has to create more opportunities. Whilst by no means is this defence at the bottom of the league, it will still put the offence in situations where Matt Ryan will have to thrown the Falcons to victory, a task he can manage, but if this is occurring on a weekly basis, look to see the Falcons miss the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers

Whilst I don’t think the Panthers will come out and finish the season 15-1 again, they are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.

Best Case 13-3 (Win the Division)

The Panther’s came out last season and blew everyone away, offensively they were unstoppable until that fateful Super Bowl match. Look to see Cam Newton build on his MVP season last year, with a now healthy Kelvin Benjamin at his disposal, this Panther’s offence may be even better than last season. Newton showed last season that he has taken the next step in his career, leading numerous drives up and down the field, which garnered his team with the best offensive production in the NFL. The key for this unit’s success lies in the run game, if Johnathan Stewart can replicate the numbers he produced last season and stay healthy, Newton and this offence will be able to operate with absolute impunity.

On the flip side the Panther’s possess one of the best defences in the NFL. Lead by the future hall of famer (in my opinion) Luke Kuechly, the line backing core which also includes Thomas Davis is one of the best, period. Not to mention some of the other stars on this defence, in Shaq Thompson, Kawann Short, Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy, this defensive front is stacked with depth and ability that forces opposing teams into precarious situations. Whilst the loss of Josh Norman may impact this unit, the Panther’s have drafted a number of young corner backs to fill the void, and Ron Rivera knows how to get the best out of his players.

Worst Case 11-5

Whilst the Panther’s as a team are loaded on both sides of the ball, I do not foresee them posting the same offensive totals they did last year. They came out and surprised everyone last season, and the Broncos showed how to stop this unit. Albeit the Broncos possessed the best defence in football last season, yet teams will copy their style and seek to pressure Newton, by taking away the run game and locking up the receivers on the outside. As noted Johnathan Stewart is the key for this offensive unit, without a stable running game Newton will struggle. Stewart is capable, yet has shown to break down as the season goes on and his durability is definitely something that may hold this offence back.

Defensively the Panther’s will be one of the better units in the game. Yet a lot of their success last season came when they were holding a lead, this was a reality through most of their regular season games. A situation which may not be replicated this season, regardless this defensive unit is loaded with so much talent, they will create opportunities in which to capitalise upon.